INDIA’S CHINA PROBLEM
The newspapers are full of Chinese incursions, again, into
Indian territory in Ladakh. The new age media thankfully is occupied with IPL
match discussions and as long as china does not play cricket the television
anchors will not give it more than a minute’s attention. So it’s left to the
print media to remind us of china’s aggression and intransigent behavior. Fifty
years after the debacle of 1962 when the Indian army was trounced by the
Chinese hordes pouring over the border, the LAC or the line of actual control
still remains fluidic and unmarked on maps. This allows the Chinese to claim
that they are not crossing any international borders but are merely patrolling
their own territory. And as long as the border issue remains festering with no
demarcation on ground level, then the chances of any eyeball-to-eyeball
confrontation escalating into something more always exists as a possibility.
But while all this happens on the eastern border where are the guardians of our
national honor? Our honorable politicians and ministers and ruling
dispensation? Where else but looking west as always.
The tragedy of Indian foreign policy is the fact that the
politicians who drive it are all obsessed with Pakistan. To put it more bluntly
Indian foreign policy will not shift its Pakistan-centric views till an entire
generation of old politicians who were born on the other side of the border
have died out. Men like Manmohan Singh, L.K.Advani, I.K.Gujral (thankfully
deceased now) were all born pre-partition in Pakistan. They are either
nostalgic for their places of birth and
want peace at any cost or on the other extreme, blame the Pakistani's for
partition and want revenge (re-unification). This sentimentality in dealing
with an alien state interferes with the hard-nosed pragmatism which is the
hallmark of foreign policy generally. So unless and until all these old
politicians and Lahori-lovers die out, it would be impossible for any practical
solution to be found for our Pakistan problem.
Pakistan is just one border state, just like Bangladesh, just
like Sri Lanka, just like Maldives and just like China. Pakistan deserves no
more or no less interest than all these other states. While the Indian foreign
policy in regard to all these other border states is nuanced and practical, it
turns emotional only when Pakistan comes into the picture. As an example, even
Bangladesh was partitioned out of the older United Bengal province of British
India. When was the last time that you heard any Bengali bleat about the age
old links with Bangladesh and how Dhaka was their karma-bhoomi and how they are
living to see the day West Bengal is re-unified with Bangladesh? Ever heard
anyone say that? But you see this everyday with politicians born on the other
side of the western border. And so unless a time comes when these ancient ‑politicians
exit the stage in favor of younger people who were born and brought up in
India, we would be forced to endure these periodic Pakistan love-fests and the
consequent neglect of relationships with all other neighbouring countries.
To come back to the current problem, the situation at the
Ladakh border is not just about territory- about the 17 km or so that the
Chinese army has encroached on the Indian side of the border. Its far more
complex than that and we should not be making the same mistake we made in the
Nehru era when rhetoric was mistaken for realpolitik. For those who are unaware
of what happened in 1962 (or forgotten) - this is an action replay of the
events then. The Chinese army had entered into Indian territory and on
being questioned about it in the Indian
Parliament, the then Prime Minister Nehru had thundered that every inch of
Indian territory would be defended and the Chinese army to be thrown out.
Against better advice and warning from experts in the know, the Indian army
under a political appointee, General BM Kaul (a Nehru family relative), who had
to follow the dictates of his political masters over the wiser counsel of his
subordinates, ordered the army to escalate the confrontation and throw the
Chinese patrol out. The People’s liberation army of China which was looking for
just such an excuse , was happy that the Indians had bit their bait and
declared an all out war with the result that the Chinese who had before the confrontation
occupied a few abandoned posts inside Indian territory had by the end of the
war occupied over 4000sqkms of Indian territory in the Aksai Chin region. If
this was a chess match, then the Indian king would have been forfeit after the Chinese
checkmate. But Prime Minister Nehru survived and declared in parliament that
there was no loss to the country because not a single blade of grass grew in
those 4000 acres in Ladakh taken over by the Chinese. This was like saying that
even if my wife got raped, thank god she didn’t get pregnant by the rapist. And
even after this statement, Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru continued to be prime
minster happily till his death and protecting everyone involved in this debacle
-which could have happened in no other country in this world except in Mera Bharat
Mahan.
Post-mortem analysts had extensively commented on how
unprepared the Indian army was for battle at high altitudes and how incompetent
the military leadership was in leading the battle. And as time went by
news emerged (from western sources) that
the Chinese had not been specifically looking for war as such but had merely
been interested in browbeating India and establishing their supremacy in Asian
affairs and the Indians had walked into that trap with eyes wide open. This is
a perfect example of what happens when sentimentality intrudes on clear headed
thinking in foreign policy.
And now to come back to the current situation- the parallels
with 1962 is eerily similar. The Chinese army- the People’s liberation army has
trained and trained and is at peak levels of efficiency. They have developed
their Tibetan territory with roads and railways to move troops and weapons for
any rapid response tactic. While our Indian army is still pathetically
dependent on foreign weapon purchases, most of which have been paralyzed for
various scams. According to informed sources, the Indian army at current levels
of preparation can at a pinch beat the Pakistani army, but not the PLA.
Humiliating though it is to admit, that’s the solid truth. And this makes it
imperative that we look for a political situation for the current impasse
rather than going all jingoistic and try to use the situation to score
political points as already some politicians are doing.
But, what do the Chinese want? Why are they going all
aggressive on us at this juncture is a question which has to be asked first.
The answer is simple- money as always. Like the rest of the world, the Chinese
have their economic problems too - their economy is stagflating badly and they
think to bully their way out of it. In recent months they have been on a path
of confrontation with Japan, Vietnam and Taiwan. India is just one more to add
to the list. As world wars 1 and 2 proved, wars are good for the economy if you
are a military power with an indigenous weapons production capacity (look at
how the American economy thrived from those wars). The new Chinese leadership wants
a war. They want to kick start their economy with a war effort. They want to
raise their international prestige with a military victory. And they want to
put all the pretentious little kids in their place just like any school bully.
So they pick on the be-spectacled little nerd, to provoke and then beat the
crap out of, as a lesson to the other kids. The wiser heads at the foreign
office realize this and hence are trying to cool things down despite the
escalating rhetoric of armchair warriors, of whom there are plenty in India.
Finally, how does India escape this opprobrium of being the
kid who always gets picked on? Only by concentrating less on talking and
actually doing something. The world respects real strength and not pious words
and good intentions. When and if the Indian defence industry becomes self
sufficient - the world will pause and take a better view of India's strength.
The failures of the DRDO (the indian defence research and development
organization responsible for weaponisation in india)- missiles which fail to
fly and useless entities like the LCA and Arjun (main battle tank) have just
made us go with begging bowls to the arms market. Unless and until we start
building our own tanks, planes and guns in-house- which should not be difficult
with so many engineering colleges in the country- we will always be the
laughing stock of Asia and have to go around afraid of being picked on by every
bully boy looking to make a name for himself. Currently, we ask the world to
respect us for our democracy and our population (market size). But
unfortunately, international politics does not work that way - only strength
begets respect. And i hope someone dins this lesson into the ears of the powers
that be.
p.s. I am open to debating this issue in more detail, if you
can just leave your comments in the comment box